The programme deals with issues of measurement and
modelling of participation at work in Italy, by using
suitable micro databases. From a general perspective, the
research programme aims at bringing together: (i)
substantive issues about the analysis of the Italian labour
market; (ii) methodological issues on the measurement of
labour phenomena, both on the side of variables measuring
and on the side of model specification and estimation; (iii)
issues of utilisation and/or development of micro-data
bases, both from surveys and administrative sources.
The programme focuses on some five broad topics, largely
related one to another: (a) analysis of job mobility, wage
mobility and flexibility, based on a longitudinal
employer-employee linked database from Social Security
files; (b) information on labour force participation from
Labour Exchange archives (NETLABOR); (c) measurement and
modelling of employment and unemployment from surveys; (d)
combining/linking data from complementary sources; (e)
analysis of some weak segments of the labour market. The
primary interest is on the Italian labour market, but some
comparative analyses extended to EU countries and the USA
are also planned.
(A) ANALYSIS OF JOB MOBILITY, WAGE MOBILITY AND FLEXIBILTY
Moving from the employer-employee panel 1986-'94 from the
Social Security files, we first plan to update it up to
1998. We then plan to study; (i) non-sampling errors in the
gross earnings measure from Social Security files; (ii)
issues of earnings mobility and flexibility; (iii) the
dynamics of labour market segmentation, possibly using
Research units: Torino
(B) INFORMATION ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION FROM LABOUR
EXCHANGE ARCHIVES (NETLABOR).
Moving from the case study performed within the 1998
programme on some Labour Exchanges in the Veneto region (see
further section 2.2), we plan the carry out the research
programme along the following lines. (i) Analysis of the
incidence among demographic groups and the evolution over
time of part-time and short-term jobs. (ii) Estimation of
unemployment, especially for small areas, by suitably
exploiting information on registered 'unemployed' in the
archive. (iii) Use of NETLABOR to evaluate the impact of
selected labour market policies.
Research units: Padova
(C) MEASUREMENT AND MODELLING OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(C1) The main data source here is the Labour Force Survey,
from which we obtained several (anonimysed) sub-samples over
the years and across the country within a partnership with
Istat. The first research task is to improve on current
criteria for counting the unemployed. We shall look at the
issue from different points of view: (i) we will go on with,
and expand, exploratory analyses of labour market
attachment; (ii) we will improve on the formulation of a
"Double-Hurdle" model of labour supply with unemployment and
fallible indicators of labour force state; (iii) we will
focus on youth unemployment and on the potential role of the
family in explaining the phenomenon; (iv) finally, we will
try to extend the analysis of the relevance of the
classification of non-employed persons (by distinguishing
persons out of the labour force and unemployed with various
degrees of labour market attachment) in a dynamic setting,
along the lines suggested by Flinn and Heckman (1983) and
Jones and Riddell (1999).
(C2) A second target in this area is related to the pilot
survey on participation at work based on a 'time-use'
approach, to be run by ISTAT in fall 1999 (see section 2.2).
We plan (i) to carry out an in-depth analysis of its
results, both on the substantive issue of measuring
participation at work, chiefly "hidden participation", and
on the methodological aspects of the survey operations, (ii)
and possibly to go on with the planning and design of large
scale national survey on the topic.
(C3) As for the analysis of the dynamics of employment and
unemployment, we will use panel sub-samples from the Labour
Force Survey (obtained thanks to a linkage procedure
developed within the 1998 programme) and from the Bank of
Italy Survey on Family Budgets. We plan to focus on the
following topics: (i) estimation of gross flows matrices
consistent with the constraints on the marginal
distributions provided by cross-sectional estimates (see
point (D1) below), and their further refinements by allowing
for measurement errors in reported labour force state; (ii)
analysis of unemployment duration: improvements in the
measurement of duration itself, by exploiting the panel
structure of the data and the consistency checks on reported
duration and labour force state thus allowed; reduced-form
modelling of unemployment duration with specific attention
to the phenomenon of "long-term unemployed".
(C4) As for school-to-work youth transitions, longitudinal
data from a survey on four cohorts of students attaining the
compulsory level will be analysed, accounting for attrition.
Research units: (C1) Padova; (C2) Padova and Siena; (C3)
Padova; (C4) Siena.
(D) COMBINING/LINKING DATA FROM COMPLEMENTARY SOURCES
(D1) The issue of combining data from different sources
arises both at the aggregate and at the micro level. At the
aggregate level it demands for calibration methods. We will
use such an approach for three types of problems: (i)
estimation of transition matrices from the Labour Force
Survey, with gross flows constrained to be consistent with
marginal distributions estimated from the two
cross-sectional surveys; (ii) reconciliation of labour
mobility estimates coming from different sources, i.e., from
the Labour Force Survey and from Social Security data-base;
(iii) combined use of sampling information on unemployment
from the Labour Force Survey with information on registered
unemployed to the Labour Exchanges provided by NETLABOR.
(D2) At the micro level, the issue is about the linkage of
individual records from complementary sources. It is likely
that, at the beginning of 2000, a first version of the
integrated Labour Force Survey-Social Security files micro
database (planned to be produced within the 1998 programme:
see section 2.2) will be available. Potentially, the
integrated database is quite interesting, because the two
sources are essentially complementary. We plan to start
working on this integrated data-base with reasonably
moderate targets: quality assessment; comparisons of the two
sources with respect to their capacity to identify the
employed. In the final phase of the research programme, we
plan to use the database for specifying and estimating
models of labour supply and job mobility.
Research units: (D1) Padova and Torino, (D2) Padova.
(E) ANALYSIS OF SOME WEAK SEGMENTS OF THE LABOUR MARKET
(E1) Relationships between participation at work and spells
of poverty will be studied using data from the Survey on
Household Budgets (by the Bank of Italy) and from the En
Community Household Panel (, taking into account the non
negligible attrition in both surveys.
(E2) The participation at work behaviour by females, youths
and immigrants will be studied using Social Security files
over the period 1974-1996 with reference to the Veneto
Research units: (E1) Siena and Padova; (E2) Venezia.